In the race to decide who will become the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 election, a quiet but fierce battle is unfolding over which state will hold the first primary. This contest for primacy in the nomination process has become even more significant since President Joe Biden’s decision to reorder the 2024 Democratic primary calendar, placing South Carolina before the traditional leaders, Iowa and New Hampshire. This shake-up has left the traditionally influential early-voting states scrambling to maintain their positions at the top, as the Democratic National Committee (DNC) works to solidify the final schedule.
The DNC’s decision to move South Carolina’s primary to the front of the pack, ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire, was a historic change that altered the dynamics of the race. South Carolina’s pivotal role in securing Biden’s 2020 victory, after a string of losses in the first few states, helped propel him to the nomination. Now, as the party prepares for the 2028 cycle, the DNC must weigh the desires of each state while balancing the evolving political landscape of the country. With the upcoming primary season expected to offer significant challenges and opportunities, all eyes are on the first states to cast their votes.
State Leaders Push for Early Voting Status
In the aftermath of Biden’s calendar reshuffle, the leaders of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada—each of which has historically held an important spot in the early stages of the Democratic nomination process—have begun to make their case for keeping their place as the first-in-the-nation contest. As the Democratic Party looks ahead to 2028, each state sees its political identity and influence as intricately tied to this timing, with arguments being made over which state best represents the Democratic electorate.
Iowa, once considered the crown jewel of the primary process, was hit hard by the 2024 calendar change. The state, which had hosted the first caucus for decades, now finds itself in a precarious position. Iowa’s predominantly white electorate, long considered a strength, has also become a point of contention as the party increasingly turns its attention to diversity and inclusion. While Iowa still holds significant importance due to its history of early influence in the process, the 2024 decision to remove its first-in-the-nation status was a blow to the state’s political establishment.
Scott Brennan, a former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, expressed that many in the state still believe Iowa should retain its place as the first state in the nation. However, with the DNC’s growing emphasis on racial diversity, especially after the 2020 election cycle, the arguments in favor of keeping Iowa as the first state have become more complex. Brennan remains hopeful that the process will be fair, and that Iowa’s historical significance will continue to be recognized in the DNC’s final decision.
The New Power Players: Nevada and South Carolina
The changes in the primary schedule have not been well received by every state, but for Nevada and South Carolina, the shift has provided new opportunities to stake their claim as the first state to hold a primary. Nevada, with its large Latino and working-class population, has made a strong push to take over the mantle from Iowa and New Hampshire. The state’s diverse electorate, combined with its status as a critical swing state, has made it a prime candidate for an early primary slot. Daniele Monroe-Moreno, chair of the Nevada Democratic Party, has argued that Nevada represents a broader cross-section of the Democratic Party, particularly as it includes significant Latino, Black, and Asian populations.
Monroe-Moreno’s argument is that Nevada’s diversity is crucial for rebuilding the Democratic Party’s coalition, particularly among working-class voters and communities of color. Nevada has become a battleground state in recent presidential elections, and its position in the primary calendar would provide an early test for candidates on how they connect with these diverse communities. As Monroe-Moreno pointed out, if Democrats are to win back working-class voters and reassemble a broad coalition of voters of color, Nevada should be the first state to make its voice heard.
South Carolina, with its outsized influence in the 2020 Democratic primary, has also made a strong case to keep its spot as the first-in-the-South primary. Under the leadership of Christale Spain, who is likely to be reelected as the state party chair, South Carolina has vowed to maintain its position in the primary calendar. South Carolina’s importance stems from its large and politically influential Black electorate, which played a decisive role in Biden’s rise to the nomination in 2020.
Spain has framed South Carolina’s primary as a critical opportunity for the Democratic Party to connect with voters who have been at the forefront of issues such as racial justice and economic inequality. “We have more to offer than other states do,” she said, pointing to the state’s deep ties to the Democratic base, especially its Black voters. She emphasized that South Carolina’s role in the 2020 primary was crucial in reviving Biden’s campaign, and it’s clear that the state’s leadership sees itself as a key player in the future of the Democratic Party.
The End of the Iowa-New Hampshire Era?
For New Hampshire, the loss of its traditional first-in-the-nation spot has also been met with resistance. New Hampshire, which has hosted the first primary in every election cycle since 1920, saw its position challenged in 2024 when the DNC endorsed the changes. New Hampshire’s primary is enshrined in state law, which makes it a complex issue for the DNC to address. However, the state party’s chairman, Ray Buckley, has expressed confidence that New Hampshire will continue to fight for its place at the top of the primary calendar in 2028.
In response to the DNC’s move, New Hampshire staged an unsanctioned primary in 2024, with Biden opting to run as a write-in candidate. The state’s commitment to holding its primary early was clear, and Biden’s decision not to appear on the ballot and instead win as a write-in candidate only further underlined New Hampshire’s determination to retain its position. Buckley, who has worked behind the scenes to ensure New Hampshire’s prominence, has indicated that the state will continue to press its case in 2028, even if the DNC places its thumb on the scale.
Kathy Sullivan, a former state party chair and DNC member, said that New Hampshire’s strategy of defying the DNC’s orders could help its case. While Iowa ceded ground to the DNC in 2024, New Hampshire stood its ground, and its delegates were seated at the national convention despite the DNC’s earlier threats.
A Shifting Democratic Primary Landscape
As the Democratic Party continues to grapple with the shifting dynamics of the primary calendar, it’s clear that each state has unique qualities that make it valuable to the process. Iowa, once the undisputed leader, now finds itself in a more uncertain position, while Nevada and South Carolina rise to prominence with strong arguments about their diverse and representative electorates. The 2028 primary calendar will shape the future of the party, and the contest over who gets the first vote will likely continue to be a defining issue for the next several years.
The debate over the first-in-the-nation primary is not just about geography but about what the Democratic Party stands for. The party’s efforts to embrace diversity, both racially and economically, will play a central role in how the primaries unfold in 2028. As states like Nevada and South Carolina make their cases, it’s important to consider how their demographics align with the changing face of America and the Democratic Party itself.
Conclusion
As 2028 approaches, the Democratic Party will face an important decision regarding the timing of its primary contests. The race to be first offers a glimpse into the shifting priorities of the party, with Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina all vying for the coveted early spot. Each state offers its own unique contribution to the primary process, and the outcome of this contest will set the tone for the future of the party. As the debate over the calendar continues, the question remains: which state will emerge victorious in securing the first vote of the 2028 Democratic primary season?
